***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 2.9 89.4 83.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 11.4 12.3 13.0 2.6 87.1 80.0 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 13.3 14.3 13.2 2.9 90.7 83.9 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 8.8 10.2 11.1 2.7 88.2 83.5 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 10.7 11.4 11.0 2.7 88.7 83.4 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 9.8 11.1 9.7 2.8 91.7 84.8 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 10.8 12.3 13.0 2.6 87.0 80.3 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 5.3 7.0 9.7 2.8 92.6 84.4 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 11.7 12.6 11.6 2.8 91.3 84.5 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 10.8 12.5 10.2 2.8 91.9 84.5 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 10.5 12.4 10.7 2.7 89.9 84.2 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 9.0 10.1 10.4 2.8 91.4 84.5 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 10.0 11.1 9.8 2.7 91.0 83.7 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 11.2 12.6 11.5 2.7 93.8 83.8 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.6 12.5 11.9 3.0 92.8 86.6 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 11.4 12.2 10.3 2.7 89.2 83.8 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.8 12.5 2.4 82.6 77.8 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 10.1 11.2 9.6 2.8 92.2 84.4 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 11.1 12.4 13.0 2.8 90.4 81.5 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 6.0 8.3 8.3 2.6 91.8 81.1 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 11.0 11.9 12.6 2.8 90.2 84.0 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 10.2 11.6 12.5 2.5 86.4 78.8 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 10.7 12.6 13.0 2.9 94.6 84.0 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 10.2 12.5 11.4 2.9 92.7 85.2 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 11.6 12.8 11.9 2.8 88.5 83.9 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 10.2 11.2 9.9 2.5 87.8 82.4 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 12.2 13.6 12.7 2.9 89.1 83.2 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 9.8 10.8 11.4 2.8 89.4 84.6 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 9.1 10.1 9.1 2.7 91.9 83.5 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 11.4 13.0 13.2 2.8 89.2 81.3 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------