***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 0.0 15.7 3.8 97.4 90.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 11.8 14.7 15.0 3.5 94.7 88.4 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 13.5 16.3 15.3 3.6 96.3 89.7 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 9.8 12.7 13.0 3.2 95.2 87.5 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 11.4 12.6 13.2 3.2 94.6 88.8 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 10.0 11.8 11.1 3.1 97.5 90.7 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 11.9 14.4 15.2 3.6 95.7 89.3 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 5.3 8.0 11.3 3.2 96.4 90.6 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 11.8 13.2 13.3 2.9 93.4 88.3 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 11.4 13.0 12.0 3.1 95.2 89.6 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 11.5 12.5 12.3 2.7 91.0 87.2 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 10.1 11.4 11.9 3.1 95.8 90.1 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 10.7 12.3 11.6 2.9 94.9 90.0 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 11.9 13.4 13.6 3.4 95.6 90.0 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 12.0 13.6 13.9 2.9 94.2 87.3 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 12.0 13.6 12.0 2.8 94.2 88.7 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 11.6 14.4 14.5 3.4 95.0 87.7 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 10.3 12.0 11.1 3.1 96.5 89.9 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 11.4 14.8 15.0 3.5 94.8 88.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 6.7 7.8 9.3 3.0 97.0 90.9 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 11.6 14.2 14.8 3.3 96.5 88.9 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 10.6 13.1 14.5 3.2 94.7 86.8 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 11.0 14.0 14.8 3.5 95.2 88.7 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 11.0 13.1 13.1 3.2 95.5 89.1 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 12.0 15.0 14.6 3.6 98.0 89.6 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 10.6 11.8 11.9 3.5 94.8 90.2 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 12.8 15.2 15.0 3.6 97.5 90.1 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 10.4 12.1 13.2 3.1 94.8 87.7 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 9.2 11.7 10.2 2.8 93.9 88.2 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 12.0 15.2 15.4 3.6 94.8 89.2 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------