***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 60.1 62.4 58.4 130.6 71.3 64.9 19.6 43.7 54.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 42.2 54.5 54.9 131.3 73.2 64.7 20.4 38.8 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 64.2 65.3 60.1 131.6 72.3 65.3 24.7 46.8 59.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 71.5 88.9 64.3 119.5 66.1 61.7 36.2 66.8 88.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 53.2 56.7 63.0 127.2 68.2 65.8 30.2 49.3 56.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 67.3 70.0 67.2 127.3 72.6 65.1 30.5 49.9 63.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 53.0 60.2 55.7 133.9 74.4 65.9 18.6 36.0 48.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 76.4 77.9 72.5 130.9 71.3 68.0 48.8 68.7 77.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 58.8 62.0 64.7 129.7 69.2 66.9 29.3 43.9 55.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 64.8 65.0 72.8 131.3 71.5 68.2 34.1 54.1 64.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 62.3 65.7 64.7 130.3 71.0 67.5 32.0 43.5 56.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 54.5 59.6 63.4 129.9 71.2 66.6 33.8 44.7 58.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 61.9 69.8 67.7 133.3 72.2 67.9 32.3 41.3 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 84.1 86.0 76.4 135.7 73.8 67.9 41.2 67.4 79.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 42.9 50.5 57.8 109.1 60.1 57.7 21.1 39.2 61.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 55.3 57.4 63.5 128.2 70.5 65.9 26.6 38.3 55.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 33.3 48.2 55.0 132.7 75.9 65.6 16.6 30.4 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 74.1 74.8 77.3 131.7 71.8 67.8 34.2 51.8 64.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 48.8 65.0 56.0 130.6 72.3 64.7 26.2 44.7 61.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 75.1 77.0 86.4 131.9 72.6 68.0 43.1 53.8 72.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 54.2 55.8 62.4 132.6 71.1 67.0 31.3 38.8 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 45.9 54.3 58.6 134.6 74.6 67.5 21.6 33.5 50.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 54.9 59.9 58.9 130.9 72.5 65.2 28.9 38.2 53.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 66.9 73.1 72.3 134.1 73.0 67.5 33.8 49.3 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 52.4 66.0 63.1 125.8 66.9 64.2 25.4 46.7 65.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 51.1 56.8 63.0 124.8 71.4 64.0 33.8 45.9 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 48.7 54.8 59.9 127.0 68.9 63.8 29.5 44.4 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 49.7 60.1 60.4 116.1 64.8 60.5 26.8 46.0 60.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 98.0 108.9 80.2 132.0 72.1 67.9 54.1 68.9 107.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 40.9 60.1 56.3 131.5 72.8 64.5 20.3 36.3 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------