***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 10.9 11.0 101.4 66.1 51.0 2.6 4.8 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.5 9.5 91.6 60.8 49.1 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.0 11.1 11.5 103.5 65.8 52.4 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.3 13.5 96.0 64.2 51.7 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.4 12.9 13.3 105.4 63.9 54.4 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.1 14.7 106.1 65.4 54.4 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.3 10.0 10.0 98.6 63.1 50.0 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 15.2 15.0 106.8 63.6 54.7 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.0 13.9 110.5 65.1 54.5 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 16.1 15.2 110.8 64.5 55.2 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.8 12.8 12.7 100.9 62.6 54.4 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.3 12.7 99.8 62.3 53.8 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.8 13.8 103.7 64.0 53.9 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.6 17.4 13.7 99.4 63.6 53.6 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.0 6.0 12.9 87.4 64.7 51.7 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.6 12.9 99.0 62.7 53.9 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.8 10.0 97.6 62.6 52.2 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 15.7 15.8 108.9 62.3 54.8 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.9 9.5 89.2 59.9 50.0 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 22.1 20.3 119.6 66.8 56.5 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.2 11.2 12.6 110.4 66.2 54.2 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.4 10.5 96.5 62.9 53.4 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.9 10.0 89.7 59.4 51.3 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.2 13.7 103.3 63.2 53.9 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.2 13.5 12.3 102.9 65.2 52.5 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.9 14.8 108.5 62.9 55.0 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.0 11.3 100.7 65.3 51.3 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.4 13.0 92.1 63.7 52.2 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.7 20.6 16.5 109.3 63.7 55.1 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.8 10.1 95.7 61.9 49.2 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------