***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 17.8 13.3 128.0 72.3 56.3 0.3 1.4 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 13.7 11.6 116.1 69.8 53.0 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.3 23.8 13.8 129.0 72.6 56.2 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.4 18.5 15.6 122.5 71.7 56.2 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.6 19.0 14.5 123.1 71.9 56.9 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.6 22.4 15.2 120.5 69.0 57.6 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 15.7 11.8 119.5 69.6 53.6 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 26.5 15.5 120.8 71.3 57.3 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.8 18.8 14.6 120.7 70.3 56.1 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.6 19.2 15.8 121.8 71.4 57.1 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 16.8 14.4 124.4 72.4 57.9 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.3 17.7 14.0 120.6 71.8 57.8 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.5 22.0 15.1 124.4 70.6 58.0 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.2 24.3 17.3 127.2 71.9 58.2 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.9 13.1 15.6 118.3 70.3 56.4 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.2 26.1 15.0 128.6 73.3 58.6 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.3 10.8 10.8 104.8 65.7 52.3 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 30.3 18.2 132.0 73.4 58.2 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.9 16.4 12.0 118.7 70.3 53.9 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.6 23.7 20.4 132.5 72.4 56.9 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 20.8 14.0 125.4 71.5 56.7 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.0 15.2 11.4 102.9 66.1 52.8 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.1 17.3 13.1 124.6 72.6 56.3 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 25.1 17.3 133.7 74.6 58.9 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.4 18.0 14.0 120.4 69.6 55.8 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.0 22.5 14.9 124.1 70.8 55.6 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.2 18.9 13.7 127.2 71.1 56.2 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.5 15.7 15.7 125.7 72.7 57.5 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 31.6 19.3 135.2 74.3 58.9 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.6 12.7 125.7 72.4 54.5 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------