***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.9 9.1 16.8 125.3 69.6 58.0 0.7 3.9 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.9 11.6 16.2 131.5 70.0 58.1 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 15.0 17.4 122.7 68.4 56.6 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.3 27.3 17.0 118.3 70.4 56.9 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.2 18.8 17.3 123.7 68.4 58.9 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.7 15.4 17.0 121.0 68.1 56.8 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.6 15.0 16.3 134.4 71.5 57.5 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.7 20.4 18.6 128.6 68.5 58.2 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.1 15.0 16.7 116.8 66.5 57.3 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 18.0 18.4 124.1 67.8 58.4 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.2 16.4 17.6 128.6 69.2 58.6 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 15.8 17.2 132.3 70.1 59.1 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.4 14.5 17.3 128.0 66.7 58.0 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.2 22.1 21.4 131.2 68.9 61.1 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.3 20.6 15.4 117.3 71.4 56.6 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 16.5 16.9 125.6 67.7 58.7 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.1 11.0 15.4 129.9 69.4 57.0 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.2 19.0 119.1 66.6 57.4 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 14.3 16.4 128.3 68.9 57.9 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.5 21.6 122.8 66.4 58.6 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.7 17.7 124.1 68.2 59.3 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 10.1 15.4 127.1 67.8 57.4 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 14.1 16.8 122.3 67.7 57.7 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.7 16.4 19.5 123.7 68.2 58.7 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.8 20.0 19.1 130.6 72.5 60.2 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 18.1 15.8 18.1 131.5 69.7 60.4 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.5 13.9 18.0 128.6 71.1 59.3 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.7 22.4 15.3 114.8 69.8 56.9 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 25.9 20.7 124.2 67.1 59.0 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.6 16.8 131.1 70.9 58.3 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------