***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 16.2 20.1 17.3 172.1 77.4 72.0 3.0 6.2 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 12.9 23.5 17.7 191.9 84.1 75.5 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 20.2 26.8 17.4 179.8 82.8 73.5 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 20.7 27.7 18.2 144.0 76.3 66.9 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.9 24.2 18.0 160.6 80.5 70.8 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 15.3 19.9 20.2 165.5 77.7 68.9 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 10.2 19.7 17.6 186.0 83.6 75.4 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 26.7 33.8 23.5 166.4 80.7 71.9 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.4 20.7 19.5 178.6 81.7 74.0 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 20.1 25.7 23.3 169.0 81.6 72.2 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.4 23.0 20.0 169.7 81.5 71.1 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 17.1 26.1 19.5 170.0 82.3 72.0 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 18.6 28.4 21.5 182.3 81.4 71.4 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 19.9 32.1 24.0 190.3 83.7 74.6 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.8 13.2 13.9 117.4 71.2 60.9 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 12.3 17.2 18.8 164.0 79.2 69.3 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 13.6 18.5 18.9 206.9 86.3 78.4 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 20.9 27.7 24.4 169.2 83.2 73.5 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 14.6 25.3 18.1 194.0 84.7 75.0 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 26.1 34.5 24.1 152.1 79.6 71.5 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.1 24.5 18.2 176.4 81.8 72.9 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 13.8 22.6 21.4 223.8 87.2 79.8 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 17.8 22.1 18.9 198.1 85.6 74.9 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 18.2 27.9 21.7 182.7 83.8 73.7 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 18.2 22.7 17.7 148.4 74.9 67.6 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 16.3 19.7 15.2 137.2 74.7 66.3 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 18.7 20.2 16.9 151.9 74.0 69.0 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 12.3 13.9 16.4 136.0 73.8 64.6 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 35.5 47.2 23.7 160.8 81.0 72.4 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.3 18.5 16.7 179.0 83.1 73.7 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------