***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.8 19.5 0.6 62.4 57.9 19.5 20.1 20.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.7 19.1 0.1 54.1 51.8 19.9 20.5 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.8 19.6 0.3 55.7 54.0 20.1 20.6 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.2 17.3 1.0 67.1 63.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.9 21.2 18.2 0.5 59.7 57.2 20.3 20.8 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 20.7 20.4 17.0 1.1 68.1 62.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.3 19.0 0.1 54.5 52.2 19.5 20.1 20.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.1 17.0 0.6 62.0 57.4 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.0 21.0 18.7 0.4 58.0 56.1 20.0 20.8 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.8 17.6 0.6 62.2 58.1 19.8 20.5 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 20.9 21.0 18.4 0.4 59.7 55.5 19.9 20.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.4 17.9 0.5 60.9 56.6 19.5 20.1 21.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.6 17.9 0.5 61.4 56.4 20.1 20.9 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.4 18.3 0.1 53.1 52.3 20.1 21.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 20.5 20.6 18.8 0.9 64.0 61.9 19.4 20.4 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 21.7 22.0 18.1 0.5 62.0 57.1 21.0 21.6 22.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 20.0 20.0 18.7 0.1 53.4 51.8 19.2 19.7 20.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.2 17.1 0.6 60.9 57.4 18.9 19.9 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.6 19.3 0.0 53.4 51.0 19.7 20.4 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.8 15.2 0.5 61.1 57.3 15.9 16.6 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.8 19.3 0.5 57.9 56.5 20.1 20.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.8 18.8 0.0 53.9 51.2 19.9 20.6 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.7 19.3 -0.1 50.2 49.0 19.8 20.7 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 21.1 20.9 18.5 0.4 58.1 55.2 20.1 20.7 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.4 18.3 0.7 63.8 59.7 19.8 20.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.9 21.2 17.4 0.5 62.7 57.0 20.2 20.6 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.7 19.0 0.6 64.1 59.1 20.1 20.5 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 20.7 21.1 18.0 1.0 66.3 62.9 19.6 20.3 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.7 16.4 0.5 59.9 56.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.6 20.4 19.3 0.2 54.3 52.6 19.7 20.3 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------