***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 14.5 17.3 16.7 -0.2 46.4 47.4 15.3 17.7 19.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 15.1 17.7 16.5 -0.6 44.4 44.9 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.2 17.8 16.9 -0.5 46.4 45.5 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.8 14.7 0.1 52.4 49.9 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 15.8 18.0 15.3 -0.3 47.5 46.9 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.1 14.2 0.0 48.3 48.8 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 14.7 17.4 16.4 -0.5 44.5 45.1 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 8.2 14.4 -0.5 44.5 45.6 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.5 18.5 15.7 -0.4 47.7 46.6 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.2 17.8 14.9 -0.4 45.8 46.2 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 19.0 18.2 15.4 -0.4 46.2 46.1 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 15.3 17.6 15.2 -0.4 44.9 45.9 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.3 14.8 -0.3 45.0 46.9 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 16.3 19.0 15.6 -0.7 44.8 43.4 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.9 15.5 0.2 55.0 51.5 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.4 15.2 -0.2 46.2 47.3 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.0 17.2 16.2 -0.6 44.2 45.2 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.9 17.3 14.6 -0.4 44.6 46.0 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 15.1 17.8 16.7 -0.6 44.3 44.4 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.4 13.4 12.6 -0.5 42.7 45.3 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 15.4 18.0 16.3 -0.3 47.7 46.7 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 15.5 18.3 16.2 -0.6 44.1 44.4 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 15.7 18.0 16.8 -0.7 43.7 43.2 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.8 15.7 -0.5 45.9 45.3 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.1 17.2 15.3 -0.1 49.1 48.6 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 18.0 16.8 14.8 -0.3 43.2 46.1 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 15.3 17.7 16.2 -0.1 47.0 48.3 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.8 15.1 0.1 51.6 50.2 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.6 13.9 -0.5 43.6 45.4 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 14.8 17.4 16.6 -0.5 44.8 45.2 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------