***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 20.6 19.7 18.3 -0.2 47.9 48.9 19.0 20.1 21.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 21.1 19.9 18.1 -0.5 44.2 46.2 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 20.7 19.5 18.4 -0.5 46.6 46.7 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.3 16.3 0.1 53.1 51.1 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.1 16.8 -0.4 46.5 47.6 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 18.5 20.4 15.9 0.3 52.0 51.6 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 20.6 19.4 18.1 -0.4 44.0 47.1 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.3 16.0 -0.3 44.8 47.8 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 20.9 20.3 17.2 -0.4 46.6 47.4 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 18.9 20.7 16.4 -0.3 46.4 47.9 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.2 16.9 -0.4 45.1 47.2 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.8 16.9 -0.3 44.4 47.7 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.6 16.5 -0.1 46.5 48.7 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 19.2 20.4 16.9 -0.8 43.7 44.6 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.1 17.1 0.3 54.8 52.5 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.2 16.8 -0.1 47.8 48.9 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.1 17.9 -0.4 44.3 46.8 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 18.2 19.8 16.0 -0.4 44.6 47.5 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.1 19.5 18.2 -0.6 43.7 45.6 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 14.6 16.0 14.1 -0.3 42.4 48.1 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 20.7 19.9 17.8 -0.3 47.0 47.8 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 21.0 20.0 17.8 -0.5 44.0 46.2 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.0 20.4 18.2 -0.8 43.1 44.3 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 18.9 20.0 17.1 -0.5 46.1 46.2 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.5 16.8 0.0 49.7 50.1 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 19.7 21.0 16.6 -0.1 47.1 49.3 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 20.6 19.9 17.7 0.0 48.7 49.9 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 20.6 21.0 16.7 0.2 54.0 51.5 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 13.4 15.4 15.3 -0.5 43.2 47.0 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.3 18.1 -0.4 44.6 46.8 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------