***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.9 20.4 0.8 60.2 57.8 20.4 21.6 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.2 21.9 19.9 0.3 52.5 52.9 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.2 20.4 0.5 55.3 54.8 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 16.2 16.5 18.3 1.4 68.6 63.3 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.8 19.0 0.7 58.7 57.0 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.7 17.8 1.2 63.4 60.3 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.8 19.7 0.2 52.2 53.0 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.1 17.7 0.7 59.0 56.8 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.5 19.6 0.6 57.3 56.3 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.6 18.4 0.8 58.8 57.0 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.5 19.2 0.5 55.4 54.8 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 22.4 22.1 18.6 0.6 58.8 56.1 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 20.8 22.8 18.7 0.5 55.9 54.4 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.6 19.1 0.3 51.5 53.4 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.9 23.1 20.1 1.3 66.4 62.7 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.1 18.8 0.6 57.0 55.9 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.3 19.4 0.2 52.1 52.9 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.8 17.7 0.8 57.9 56.7 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.1 21.8 20.0 0.2 52.5 52.6 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.2 15.9 0.7 58.0 56.4 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.5 20.2 0.7 58.4 56.8 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.0 19.5 0.2 51.9 52.5 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 22.1 21.7 20.1 0.1 49.8 51.6 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.8 19.3 0.6 56.2 55.6 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.9 22.0 19.2 0.9 62.2 59.2 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.8 22.4 18.2 0.7 58.9 56.2 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.2 19.8 0.8 60.3 58.4 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 22.2 23.8 19.1 1.4 67.2 62.7 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 17.0 0.6 56.4 55.8 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.1 20.0 0.3 54.1 53.6 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------