***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 24.0 24.3 22.8 1.8 71.2 68.7 21.3 23.0 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 24.5 24.3 22.1 1.1 65.2 62.2 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 24.8 25.1 22.7 1.6 68.4 65.8 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 17.2 18.0 20.2 2.3 81.4 72.4 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 25.6 25.6 21.5 2.1 72.5 69.4 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 24.3 25.5 20.2 2.7 80.7 75.0 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 23.8 24.1 21.9 1.0 65.1 61.7 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.7 19.8 2.3 75.9 71.1 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.3 22.2 1.9 70.0 68.1 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 25.1 26.1 20.8 2.4 77.0 72.4 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 25.2 25.1 22.0 2.0 71.0 68.3 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 24.4 24.7 20.9 2.1 73.2 69.3 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.7 21.7 2.0 72.4 68.0 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 24.7 25.8 21.6 1.7 70.8 67.2 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 24.3 24.6 22.4 1.7 72.0 66.8 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 25.8 26.1 21.5 2.0 71.1 68.0 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 23.5 23.6 21.4 1.0 64.9 61.5 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 23.9 25.0 19.9 2.3 75.8 71.6 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 24.5 23.9 22.3 1.1 65.7 62.4 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.6 20.4 18.0 2.1 76.4 71.0 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 25.0 25.0 22.8 1.8 69.9 67.8 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 24.8 24.6 21.5 1.1 66.6 62.5 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 23.4 24.0 22.2 1.1 63.9 61.5 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 24.7 25.2 21.8 2.0 71.7 69.0 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.5 21.7 1.9 73.9 68.8 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 24.4 24.9 20.1 1.8 71.4 67.6 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.6 22.2 1.8 72.0 68.6 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 24.7 25.3 21.3 2.2 78.3 71.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 19.5 20.2 19.2 2.1 75.3 70.7 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 24.3 24.6 22.3 1.2 66.3 63.1 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------