***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.9 11.2 0.8 67.6 63.7 8.1 8.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.2 10.6 0.6 64.0 60.3 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.1 11.2 0.7 66.3 63.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.0 8.8 1.0 71.3 67.4 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 8.9 9.0 9.3 0.9 69.8 66.2 7.1 8.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 7.9 8.0 7.5 1.1 74.2 70.3 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.8 10.6 0.6 64.2 60.5 8.2 8.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 3.7 3.8 7.3 0.9 69.9 66.4 2.5 3.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 9.8 9.6 9.4 0.8 69.1 65.2 8.2 8.7 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.5 8.0 0.8 70.0 66.0 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.1 8.8 0.8 69.7 65.4 7.3 8.1 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.8 7.9 8.1 0.9 71.3 67.5 6.3 7.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.6 7.9 1.0 73.2 68.6 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.2 9.2 0.7 68.0 63.8 8.5 8.9 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 9.5 9.5 10.1 0.8 70.2 66.1 8.7 8.9 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.9 10.2 8.4 1.0 72.9 68.1 8.4 9.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.2 10.3 0.6 65.3 60.3 8.1 8.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 8.3 8.0 7.4 0.9 69.5 66.5 6.8 7.7 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.6 10.7 0.6 63.9 60.3 8.0 8.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.6 5.9 1.0 71.4 67.1 3.0 4.2 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.0 10.5 0.8 68.2 64.1 7.3 8.3 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.2 10.4 0.5 63.5 60.2 7.3 7.5 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.7 10.6 0.5 64.3 60.1 7.6 8.3 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 8.8 8.6 9.1 0.8 68.4 65.4 7.8 8.1 8.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.8 10.3 0.9 68.7 64.2 8.1 8.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 8.7 8.8 7.7 1.2 73.0 70.4 7.4 8.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.1 10.8 0.9 68.3 64.2 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.0 9.0 1.0 71.9 68.1 7.0 7.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.4 6.8 0.8 69.3 65.7 5.7 6.3 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.2 10.9 0.6 63.9 61.0 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------