***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.2 9.0 0.1 52.4 50.4 4.2 5.8 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.8 8.5 -0.1 46.9 48.0 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.0 9.1 9.1 0.1 50.4 50.1 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.4 6.5 0.3 54.0 53.1 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.7 6.9 0.3 53.2 52.4 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.9 5.4 0.5 54.1 55.1 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.5 8.5 -0.1 46.3 47.9 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -0.7 1.5 5.3 0.3 50.5 52.5 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.5 7.2 0.3 53.7 52.4 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.3 5.9 0.3 52.4 52.4 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.7 6.5 0.3 52.1 53.0 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.4 5.9 0.4 51.1 53.4 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.2 5.6 0.5 53.2 54.7 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.5 7.0 0.0 48.4 49.4 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.2 7.6 0.4 54.6 54.3 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.5 6.5 6.1 0.5 53.9 54.2 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.7 8.3 -0.2 46.0 47.7 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.7 5.3 0.3 52.4 52.4 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.6 8.6 -0.1 46.9 48.4 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.5 1.4 3.8 0.3 51.9 52.0 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.9 8.4 0.2 51.7 51.4 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.6 8.2 -0.2 45.7 47.8 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.2 8.6 0.0 47.2 48.8 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.8 6.0 6.8 0.2 51.5 51.4 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.7 7.8 0.2 52.8 51.4 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.6 5.5 0.5 54.0 55.1 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.6 8.5 0.1 52.2 50.5 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.1 6.7 0.4 54.1 53.7 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.3 4.9 0.3 51.7 51.9 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.0 8.7 -0.1 48.1 48.6 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------