***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.6 10.3 0.4 54.9 53.5 7.0 8.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.3 9.7 0.2 53.0 51.8 7.6 8.1 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.6 10.2 0.2 52.9 52.6 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.3 7.8 0.6 57.2 56.5 5.2 5.8 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.3 8.0 0.4 54.5 54.7 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.7 6.5 0.7 57.0 58.1 5.6 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.6 9.8 0.3 53.8 52.6 7.5 8.3 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.3 6.3 0.4 55.3 55.0 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.2 8.2 0.4 54.3 54.3 7.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.3 6.9 0.4 55.2 54.6 7.8 8.1 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.7 7.5 0.5 55.5 55.5 6.7 7.7 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.6 6.9 0.5 55.7 56.0 5.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.4 6.5 0.7 55.4 57.2 5.9 7.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.6 9.0 8.1 0.3 53.9 53.2 8.0 8.6 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.5 8.9 0.7 59.1 58.2 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.5 7.1 0.6 55.9 56.9 7.5 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.8 9.6 0.2 52.8 52.0 7.3 8.8 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.7 6.2 0.4 54.2 54.7 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.3 9.7 0.1 52.6 51.5 7.6 8.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.9 4.7 0.5 52.2 54.9 2.0 3.7 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 9.4 0.3 53.4 53.6 6.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.5 9.4 0.1 52.9 51.5 6.9 7.5 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.5 9.7 0.1 52.6 51.4 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.0 7.9 0.3 54.8 54.1 7.3 7.9 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.3 8.5 9.0 0.4 54.4 53.7 7.5 8.3 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.6 6.4 0.7 55.9 57.9 6.2 8.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.6 9.7 0.5 55.2 53.9 7.3 8.1 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.4 8.0 0.7 58.0 57.6 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.8 6.7 5.8 0.4 53.1 54.5 6.2 6.6 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.6 10.0 0.2 53.5 52.3 7.8 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------