***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.9 10.4 11.6 0.6 60.8 57.8 8.2 9.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 10.0 11.0 11.0 0.5 60.6 56.7 8.5 9.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.8 11.6 0.6 60.8 57.5 10.5 11.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.4 8.0 9.3 0.9 64.8 60.5 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.8 9.8 0.7 61.2 58.5 7.3 8.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.5 9.2 7.8 0.9 61.0 61.1 6.2 8.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.4 11.0 0.4 60.0 56.0 8.6 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 4.1 4.0 7.6 0.6 57.3 57.2 2.9 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.7 9.8 0.6 59.0 57.6 9.0 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.8 10.5 8.3 0.7 58.7 57.7 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.0 9.3 0.6 58.8 57.1 7.5 9.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.8 8.5 0.7 58.4 57.8 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.6 8.4 0.8 59.8 59.1 7.1 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 10.1 10.9 9.5 0.5 59.6 56.6 9.1 9.8 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.4 11.1 10.8 0.8 62.3 60.6 8.7 10.1 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.7 8.9 0.7 59.9 58.9 8.3 10.1 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.4 10.7 0.5 60.8 57.0 8.5 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.6 8.6 7.8 0.7 58.3 58.3 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 9.7 10.5 11.1 0.5 60.8 56.7 8.4 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.1 6.2 0.7 57.1 58.1 3.3 4.8 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.2 11.0 0.6 60.1 58.3 7.9 9.8 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.4 10.9 0.5 61.8 57.3 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.5 9.8 11.0 0.4 59.9 56.1 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.5 10.2 9.6 0.6 60.2 58.0 8.0 9.4 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.3 10.7 0.7 61.4 57.8 8.2 10.0 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 9.4 9.5 8.1 0.9 60.1 59.9 7.0 9.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.5 11.1 11.2 0.7 61.6 58.0 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.3 9.6 0.9 63.5 60.9 6.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 7.6 8.0 7.1 0.6 56.5 57.3 6.7 7.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 10.4 10.7 11.3 0.5 60.6 56.5 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------