***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 39.4 91.4 48.4 45.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 43.0 38.4 38.8 87.0 48.3 44.7 20.4 38.8 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 54.0 41.9 39.8 91.1 48.3 44.9 24.7 46.8 59.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 43.0 47.9 39.7 81.1 42.4 40.2 36.2 66.8 88.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 33.2 40.0 39.3 80.1 39.8 39.8 30.2 49.3 56.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 29.7 39.0 43.3 77.5 41.5 38.7 30.5 49.9 63.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.3 30.8 39.2 86.9 47.0 44.3 18.6 36.0 48.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 50.5 56.0 41.3 74.8 39.5 37.3 48.8 68.7 77.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 28.9 32.3 41.0 84.1 42.5 42.1 29.3 43.9 55.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 58.5 48.3 43.6 80.6 43.0 40.2 34.1 54.1 64.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 30.0 37.9 35.3 75.5 40.5 38.3 32.0 43.5 56.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 28.4 37.0 33.5 71.8 38.9 36.6 33.8 44.7 58.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 27.5 36.7 37.1 72.9 38.6 36.3 32.3 41.3 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 47.8 50.6 48.8 89.0 42.8 43.0 41.2 67.4 79.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 22.3 33.8 36.6 74.3 40.9 37.1 21.1 39.2 61.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 23.6 31.5 35.4 72.9 38.1 36.2 26.6 38.3 55.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 34.6 29.4 38.4 85.2 49.0 44.2 16.6 30.4 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 35.9 48.7 51.3 85.2 44.9 41.3 34.2 51.8 64.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 49.7 43.6 39.0 87.7 48.7 44.7 26.2 44.7 61.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 39.2 45.5 59.0 79.2 39.0 37.5 43.1 53.8 72.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 26.3 38.0 39.1 87.9 46.7 44.1 31.3 38.8 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 38.6 38.7 40.1 87.3 52.6 46.5 21.6 33.5 50.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 26.6 35.6 39.9 86.8 47.1 43.0 28.9 38.2 53.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 29.6 47.6 46.6 88.6 44.9 42.7 33.8 49.3 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.1 45.3 43.4 87.4 47.1 43.2 25.4 46.7 65.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 28.7 35.7 33.5 69.7 35.9 34.6 33.8 45.9 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 25.7 43.4 43.3 90.5 48.9 45.1 29.5 44.4 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 24.8 31.7 37.2 75.5 40.1 37.6 26.8 46.0 60.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 52.5 57.4 55.4 84.0 43.1 40.4 54.1 68.9 107.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 41.9 34.6 39.2 88.7 47.5 45.0 20.3 36.3 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------