***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.0 86.5 57.5 47.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.0 9.1 80.7 55.5 47.2 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 1.4 7.5 9.1 87.8 58.9 48.9 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.0 9.3 82.8 59.4 47.3 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.0 12.3 9.2 84.5 60.0 47.9 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.6 7.0 10.0 90.1 60.9 46.6 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.9 9.3 80.2 55.2 47.0 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.9 14.2 9.9 83.1 59.2 47.5 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.5 9.4 86.2 59.9 48.9 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.1 10.3 86.5 59.4 49.1 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.5 12.4 8.4 81.7 59.2 46.7 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.1 7.9 81.5 60.5 46.1 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.9 8.7 85.4 58.9 45.4 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.6 16.5 12.3 91.9 62.3 50.3 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.0 8.7 78.5 57.8 47.4 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.1 8.3 81.8 57.5 45.5 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.4 5.1 9.5 85.0 56.2 47.5 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.0 13.1 12.5 91.8 60.3 50.0 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.7 9.0 82.4 56.3 47.9 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.6 14.2 14.9 87.7 59.7 48.0 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.1 6.9 9.0 88.9 61.1 49.5 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.4 9.8 89.7 57.1 48.7 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.7 9.5 85.6 58.2 49.3 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.8 11.7 11.3 92.4 60.2 50.1 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.2 3.5 10.1 86.5 55.0 47.9 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.9 9.2 7.8 80.5 57.4 44.7 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 5.4 9.9 85.8 54.1 47.5 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.1 8.6 79.3 58.9 46.9 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.5 18.7 13.9 92.0 60.8 49.6 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.2 9.0 81.2 55.2 46.9 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------