***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 9.1 86.8 61.3 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.0 8.1 9.5 81.8 55.3 48.0 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.3 8.8 9.1 82.2 57.9 46.4 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.2 12.2 8.6 69.3 54.4 42.6 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.6 5.3 8.5 70.3 54.4 43.8 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.8 10.5 74.6 53.5 46.0 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.5 9.9 86.9 56.3 48.4 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.0 14.0 9.5 68.5 52.7 44.7 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.7 8.9 75.1 56.7 45.1 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 10.6 9.7 71.6 53.5 44.9 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.2 5.0 7.5 63.3 51.6 43.2 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.1 9.7 7.4 63.3 51.3 43.7 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.0 5.8 8.7 69.2 51.6 43.9 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.4 10.0 10.4 74.6 54.0 46.8 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.1 8.3 65.8 55.1 42.3 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.5 5.2 7.5 62.0 49.5 42.3 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.3 10.2 87.4 57.5 50.7 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.4 12.7 11.2 73.7 52.3 45.3 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 5.7 9.0 79.1 55.3 46.7 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.8 13.2 14.1 73.9 52.2 44.8 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.7 8.6 78.8 57.8 45.6 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.6 10.2 84.3 56.5 49.1 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.8 8.7 75.5 54.7 45.0 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.0 4.8 10.1 75.6 52.6 45.7 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.2 9.7 80.6 55.8 45.0 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.0 16.3 9.1 80.3 58.2 46.6 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.4 6.5 10.1 87.1 59.0 46.8 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.2 5.7 8.0 62.9 53.8 41.4 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.0 19.8 12.6 74.9 52.6 45.9 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.0 9.3 82.7 56.9 47.4 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------