***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.1 126.9 71.5 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 12.1 12.8 119.4 71.0 57.9 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.9 16.8 13.3 125.1 72.7 56.6 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.5 24.3 13.8 115.7 68.0 54.7 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 17.8 12.9 106.4 66.6 53.0 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.7 14.2 92.6 62.9 49.4 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.9 12.9 119.5 70.4 57.6 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 19.0 13.0 87.6 60.7 50.4 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.5 15.3 13.1 107.7 67.6 54.8 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.6 13.4 96.6 64.3 52.5 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.9 15.0 11.3 98.5 66.7 52.4 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.7 10.9 90.0 62.1 51.0 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.6 12.0 88.6 64.7 47.6 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.0 22.4 15.5 120.5 69.5 56.4 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 20.0 13.5 115.4 68.9 51.6 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 16.1 11.9 98.0 65.6 50.4 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.1 10.8 12.3 110.3 66.8 57.1 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.0 15.8 102.7 66.5 53.1 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 14.5 12.9 119.1 70.8 56.8 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.3 19.4 93.4 63.2 50.1 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.8 12.9 118.0 71.2 57.1 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.9 12.7 111.4 66.2 56.4 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.1 15.4 13.0 116.3 69.6 55.4 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.0 16.5 14.6 113.6 68.4 53.4 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.9 14.5 116.0 66.1 55.5 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 4.6 10.9 82.8 55.4 44.8 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 11.9 14.4 122.0 68.9 56.3 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 20.8 13.3 112.3 67.5 52.0 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 24.6 17.2 99.3 65.0 51.5 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 11.7 13.1 124.2 72.5 58.3 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------