***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 68.8 59.7 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.1 7.4 67.5 55.6 44.8 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.7 8.3 71.2 54.3 42.6 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.6 9.4 8.1 59.8 49.8 42.9 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 6.6 8.7 62.5 51.2 42.2 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 4.8 8.6 56.2 48.5 41.2 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.2 7.1 7.0 62.4 56.9 43.4 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.9 11.1 8.9 60.9 48.0 39.8 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.2 9.5 69.2 54.0 44.0 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.8 11.9 10.3 69.3 51.4 43.0 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.3 7.4 8.2 61.8 52.0 42.2 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.5 7.3 55.4 48.0 39.1 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.9 4.2 7.7 53.0 43.5 37.8 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.2 10.5 72.4 52.2 44.3 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.7 6.1 44.4 50.2 37.7 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.1 7.7 54.6 46.7 39.1 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.7 6.4 58.1 52.7 42.1 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.8 11.7 73.7 53.1 43.3 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.7 8.0 71.3 55.5 44.5 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.4 10.6 60.1 43.2 36.2 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.5 6.9 8.6 68.6 54.8 43.5 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.0 7.4 64.1 54.7 43.7 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.0 8.7 71.4 52.3 41.6 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.8 10.5 74.6 54.1 43.8 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.0 9.5 9.0 67.4 56.0 42.8 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.2 2.6 5.7 41.1 37.7 32.4 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 13.1 8.9 69.1 59.2 44.1 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.3 5.4 7.3 52.3 48.5 40.7 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.9 10.3 11.6 70.0 49.6 40.5 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.5 7.9 7.8 68.8 57.2 44.4 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------