***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.6 -0.7 40.5 40.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 19.7 20.4 18.5 -0.7 39.7 40.7 19.9 20.5 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.5 18.9 -0.5 44.7 43.4 20.1 20.6 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.1 13.0 17.1 -0.6 40.9 42.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.6 -0.5 41.2 44.1 20.3 20.8 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.9 19.7 16.3 -0.3 41.6 46.1 19.4 19.9 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 19.4 19.8 18.3 -0.8 38.9 39.2 19.5 20.1 20.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.6 16.7 -0.2 45.7 48.3 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.6 18.2 -0.4 46.0 46.2 20.0 20.8 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.5 17.3 -0.2 46.6 47.5 19.8 20.5 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 19.8 20.3 17.6 -0.3 43.5 46.9 19.9 20.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 20.4 19.9 17.5 -0.1 46.2 48.6 19.5 20.1 21.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 19.7 20.6 17.2 -0.2 45.7 47.5 20.1 20.9 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.3 18.0 -0.3 49.3 47.4 20.1 21.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.2 17.8 -0.4 43.4 45.6 19.4 20.4 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.5 21.3 17.4 -0.3 44.0 46.6 21.0 21.6 22.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.4 18.1 -0.7 39.4 40.6 19.2 19.7 20.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.8 16.7 -0.2 48.1 47.7 18.9 19.9 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.5 20.1 18.7 -0.6 43.3 43.0 19.7 20.4 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.4 14.8 -0.2 47.1 47.9 15.9 16.6 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 19.7 20.5 18.6 -0.6 42.5 43.3 20.1 20.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.1 18.3 -0.7 42.3 42.0 19.9 20.6 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 19.8 20.6 18.9 -0.4 47.5 46.2 19.8 20.7 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.7 18.0 -0.3 48.0 46.7 20.1 20.7 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 19.2 19.8 17.2 -0.8 37.1 39.2 19.8 20.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 19.5 20.6 17.1 -0.2 46.4 48.2 20.2 20.6 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 19.5 20.1 17.8 -0.8 36.6 38.5 20.1 20.5 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 19.1 19.9 17.6 -0.4 42.2 44.7 19.6 20.3 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.4 16.0 -0.2 48.1 48.0 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.0 18.6 -0.7 40.1 40.8 19.7 20.3 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------