***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 -1.0 35.2 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.2 16.4 -1.0 36.9 40.3 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.5 16.7 -0.9 37.4 41.4 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.3 15.0 -1.0 35.9 40.3 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.1 15.5 -0.9 37.1 41.5 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.5 14.5 -0.6 37.5 44.8 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.1 16.6 16.2 -1.0 35.4 39.8 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.0 8.2 14.8 -0.5 39.7 45.8 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.3 16.0 -0.8 38.3 42.5 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 15.0 16.7 15.2 -0.7 38.2 44.3 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.8 15.5 -0.7 36.7 44.0 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 15.0 17.1 15.6 -0.5 40.3 46.1 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 15.4 17.3 15.3 -0.5 38.2 46.0 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 16.1 17.9 15.9 -0.8 35.7 43.6 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.8 15.3 -0.8 39.4 41.7 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.8 17.8 15.4 -0.7 36.6 44.3 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.1 16.4 16.0 -1.0 36.6 40.1 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 14.3 16.7 14.8 -0.6 39.5 45.0 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.5 17.2 16.6 -0.9 37.8 41.3 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 11.5 13.4 13.1 -0.5 42.8 46.6 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.8 17.4 16.4 -0.9 38.0 41.1 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.6 16.1 -1.0 36.3 40.5 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.8 17.6 16.7 -0.8 38.2 42.8 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 15.3 17.8 15.9 -0.7 38.1 43.9 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.2 15.2 -1.0 35.5 39.3 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 15.0 16.8 15.3 -0.3 40.2 47.2 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.5 17.0 15.8 -1.0 34.2 39.5 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.9 15.4 -0.8 37.2 41.8 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.4 13.1 14.1 -0.6 40.2 45.6 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 18.2 16.9 16.5 -1.0 36.7 40.4 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------