***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.2 0.2 50.1 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 18.7 21.3 19.0 0.1 53.6 52.9 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 18.6 20.8 19.5 0.4 53.4 54.8 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.4 13.1 17.8 0.4 51.7 54.5 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 19.0 20.2 18.3 0.5 50.8 54.9 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.5 20.6 17.2 0.7 56.9 56.5 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 18.2 20.8 18.8 0.0 52.0 52.1 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 11.4 17.4 0.7 56.2 56.6 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.5 18.8 0.6 51.9 55.5 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.8 18.0 0.7 55.1 56.2 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 19.0 21.0 18.3 0.7 54.6 56.5 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.0 21.0 18.2 0.8 56.8 56.8 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 19.4 21.5 17.9 0.7 57.7 56.4 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 19.2 21.5 18.7 0.6 56.6 56.0 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 17.6 20.2 18.1 0.6 57.7 56.2 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.9 18.1 0.7 56.6 56.6 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 17.8 20.0 18.6 0.0 52.7 52.0 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 20.2 20.1 17.5 0.7 55.0 56.3 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 18.7 20.9 19.3 0.3 55.1 54.2 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.7 17.1 15.5 0.6 56.6 56.2 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 18.9 20.1 19.2 0.4 50.6 54.7 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 18.7 21.0 18.8 0.1 53.3 53.0 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.0 20.9 19.5 0.5 55.5 55.8 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 18.9 21.2 18.7 0.6 54.9 56.0 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 18.5 19.4 17.9 0.2 48.7 53.5 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 19.6 21.6 17.8 0.6 58.4 55.9 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 18.5 20.0 18.4 0.1 49.2 53.0 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 17.9 21.1 18.2 0.6 55.9 55.7 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.7 16.5 16.7 0.7 55.8 56.3 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 18.6 21.0 19.2 0.2 53.4 53.4 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------