***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.4 -0.5 38.3 46.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.7 19.4 -0.4 44.8 47.2 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 19.9 21.6 19.8 -0.2 42.3 49.3 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.2 13.7 18.1 -0.3 40.4 47.3 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.5 18.6 0.0 43.0 49.6 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.5 21.2 17.6 0.4 51.1 53.6 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.3 19.2 -0.5 42.3 46.1 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.2 17.8 0.4 49.4 53.3 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.9 19.1 0.1 45.0 51.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 19.9 22.0 18.3 0.3 46.9 52.4 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.2 22.4 18.6 0.3 47.8 52.6 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.6 21.9 18.7 0.4 50.8 54.0 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.6 18.4 0.5 51.9 53.9 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.5 19.0 0.2 48.8 52.1 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.5 18.5 -0.1 43.6 49.2 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 21.0 22.7 18.5 0.3 49.7 52.6 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.1 19.0 -0.4 46.3 46.9 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.3 21.6 17.8 0.3 47.4 52.7 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.0 21.4 19.7 -0.2 46.0 48.8 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.5 17.7 15.8 0.3 47.0 52.0 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.6 19.4 -0.1 42.3 49.0 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.6 19.2 -0.4 46.9 48.0 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 20.2 21.7 19.9 0.0 47.4 50.8 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 20.5 22.2 19.0 0.2 47.6 52.1 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 19.7 20.2 18.1 -0.5 39.4 46.2 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.3 18.4 0.5 54.9 54.5 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.1 20.9 18.6 -0.5 37.3 45.7 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.2 18.6 -0.1 43.3 49.2 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.5 17.3 17.0 0.3 48.0 52.5 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.3 19.5 -0.4 43.0 47.3 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------