***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.1 -1.7 32.2 32.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.2 22.3 19.1 -1.6 38.2 33.9 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 21.3 21.2 19.4 -1.5 32.9 34.7 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 14.3 14.5 17.4 -1.5 31.7 35.3 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 21.6 21.3 18.1 -1.5 32.2 34.7 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.6 20.7 16.0 -1.8 30.2 32.1 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.4 21.4 18.9 -1.7 34.9 32.6 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.3 16.6 -1.3 33.8 36.4 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.4 21.3 19.0 -1.3 34.6 36.5 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 20.6 20.6 17.5 -1.3 34.9 36.7 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.4 21.0 17.9 -1.5 34.3 35.1 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 20.5 20.4 17.5 -1.4 33.5 36.2 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.3 20.8 17.4 -1.6 31.2 34.2 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.1 18.6 -1.2 38.7 37.9 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.5 19.2 -1.1 35.8 37.9 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.3 21.8 17.7 -1.6 33.0 34.2 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.3 18.8 -1.5 38.4 35.1 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.2 16.7 -1.3 34.7 36.4 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.0 19.3 -1.5 38.8 35.3 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 15.9 16.3 15.0 -1.3 30.6 36.9 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.2 20.9 19.2 -1.6 32.2 34.0 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.8 21.7 19.0 -1.4 40.7 35.9 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 21.1 21.7 19.4 -1.2 39.2 37.5 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.8 21.7 18.2 -1.4 34.7 36.0 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 21.2 20.7 17.7 -2.0 28.8 30.0 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.2 20.7 17.1 -1.5 31.0 35.3 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 20.9 20.5 18.3 -2.0 29.5 29.8 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 23.9 21.9 18.3 -1.3 33.6 36.4 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.6 14.9 16.1 -1.3 34.0 36.7 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.5 21.5 19.2 -1.6 35.7 33.6 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------