***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 -1.0 27.9 35.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.7 7.8 9.6 -0.8 32.6 37.4 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.4 9.7 -0.8 35.2 37.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 5.4 7.6 -1.0 25.4 32.3 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.7 6.6 7.8 -1.0 26.4 33.1 7.1 8.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.0 6.5 6.2 -0.8 30.3 35.5 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.6 -0.8 30.7 37.1 8.2 8.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.3 2.1 6.4 -0.9 27.2 33.6 2.5 3.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 8.0 7.9 8.4 -0.8 29.4 36.5 8.2 8.7 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.6 7.5 7.0 -0.9 28.0 34.9 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.1 6.9 7.5 -0.9 27.0 34.1 7.3 8.1 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.1 6.0 7.1 -0.9 26.4 33.9 6.3 7.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 6.4 6.5 6.7 -0.8 26.9 35.0 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.5 8.4 -0.7 35.5 37.8 8.5 8.9 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.7 8.5 -0.6 35.8 38.5 8.7 8.9 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.2 7.1 -0.8 28.7 34.8 8.4 9.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.2 9.4 -0.7 36.3 39.2 8.1 8.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 6.7 6.5 -0.8 29.6 36.1 6.8 7.7 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.6 -0.8 34.5 37.7 8.0 8.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.9 2.8 5.1 -0.9 28.5 35.5 3.0 4.2 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.4 7.2 9.3 -0.9 30.6 35.7 7.3 8.3 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.0 7.3 9.4 -0.7 36.6 38.7 7.3 7.5 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.7 7.8 9.5 -0.7 35.4 38.2 7.6 8.3 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.6 7.9 8.2 -0.7 35.0 37.7 7.8 8.1 8.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 7.7 7.9 8.4 -1.1 23.4 31.9 8.1 8.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 7.1 7.3 7.0 -0.7 32.1 37.5 7.4 8.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.7 9.1 -1.0 25.6 34.0 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.0 8.0 -0.8 32.3 36.2 7.0 7.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.8 5.7 6.0 -0.8 30.4 36.2 5.7 6.3 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.7 -0.9 31.4 36.7 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------