***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.5 -1.2 33.0 36.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 4.3 8.1 -1.2 35.3 37.0 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.9 6.9 8.2 -1.1 33.9 37.3 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.0 1.9 6.1 -1.2 29.1 34.9 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.0 2.9 6.2 -1.3 29.1 35.0 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.8 2.6 4.9 -1.0 32.8 38.0 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.4 4.1 8.1 -1.2 35.2 36.6 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 5.2 -1.1 31.4 37.5 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.6 6.9 -1.2 29.3 36.5 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.2 4.7 5.6 -1.2 31.1 37.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.5 4.1 6.0 -1.2 30.3 36.0 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.2 5.8 -1.1 31.5 36.7 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.0 5.2 -1.1 32.9 36.4 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.7 4.4 6.9 -1.1 33.0 37.8 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 4.9 6.8 -0.9 34.5 38.1 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.2 5.6 -1.1 31.9 36.2 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.5 7.9 -1.1 35.5 37.9 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.3 5.2 -1.1 31.7 38.4 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.7 4.1 8.1 -1.1 34.7 37.3 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -0.8 -0.5 4.0 -1.0 30.6 39.5 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.6 4.1 7.7 -1.2 30.6 36.5 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.8 3.5 7.8 -1.1 34.2 37.7 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.2 3.9 8.0 -1.1 32.8 37.6 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.5 4.0 6.7 -1.1 31.9 38.0 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.6 6.9 -1.3 31.5 36.0 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.1 5.6 -0.9 32.7 38.7 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.2 4.3 7.7 -1.2 32.6 36.7 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.6 2.3 6.4 -1.1 32.5 36.6 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.7 2.4 4.8 -1.0 31.8 39.0 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.6 8.3 -1.2 34.9 36.8 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------