***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 -0.3 45.0 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.8 9.9 -0.2 45.8 48.7 7.6 8.1 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.5 10.0 -0.2 47.2 49.0 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.6 5.5 7.8 -0.4 39.8 46.4 5.2 5.8 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.3 8.0 -0.4 40.6 46.9 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.6 7.2 6.6 0.0 47.9 50.4 5.6 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.1 9.9 -0.3 47.0 48.4 7.5 8.3 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.7 2.8 6.8 -0.3 42.6 48.0 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.0 8.6 -0.2 42.6 48.5 7.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.0 8.0 7.2 -0.3 41.8 47.7 7.8 8.1 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.7 7.2 7.7 -0.3 42.6 48.2 6.7 7.7 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.8 6.3 7.4 -0.2 43.0 49.1 5.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 6.1 6.6 7.0 -0.1 43.1 49.8 5.9 7.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.5 8.6 -0.2 45.5 49.1 8.0 8.6 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 7.8 8.4 8.4 -0.1 47.7 49.7 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.4 8.1 7.4 -0.2 42.0 49.1 7.5 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.7 9.7 -0.2 45.7 48.4 7.3 8.8 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.2 6.8 -0.3 44.0 48.2 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.3 8.0 9.9 -0.2 46.1 49.1 7.6 8.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.2 5.6 -0.3 44.2 48.4 2.0 3.7 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.8 9.5 -0.3 43.7 48.3 6.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.6 7.2 9.6 -0.2 45.1 48.5 6.9 7.5 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.0 9.7 -0.2 46.0 49.5 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.6 7.8 8.4 -0.2 46.5 49.1 7.3 7.9 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.0 8.7 -0.4 42.5 47.0 7.5 8.3 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.6 7.6 7.5 0.1 46.8 52.0 6.2 8.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.5 8.0 9.5 -0.3 43.2 47.9 7.3 8.1 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.8 6.8 8.1 -0.2 43.9 48.4 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.3 6.3 -0.3 44.5 48.1 6.2 6.6 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.4 10.1 -0.3 45.4 48.6 7.8 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------