***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 -0.5 39.4 45.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.5 10.3 -0.4 45.2 46.6 8.5 9.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.0 10.3 -0.4 41.7 46.2 10.5 11.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 6.1 8.3 -0.6 36.8 42.7 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.1 8.4 -0.5 42.6 44.4 7.3 8.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.1 7.2 -0.1 49.0 49.6 6.2 8.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.2 10.3 -0.4 45.3 46.2 8.6 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.5 7.3 -0.3 46.0 46.8 2.9 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 8.4 9.9 9.1 -0.4 45.1 46.5 9.0 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.3 7.7 -0.4 45.1 46.5 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.9 8.2 -0.3 47.9 47.0 7.5 9.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.6 8.0 -0.2 47.8 48.1 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.0 7.7 -0.1 48.1 49.8 7.1 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.6 9.1 -0.2 46.5 48.7 9.1 9.8 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.6 9.0 -0.3 44.5 46.2 8.7 10.1 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.0 8.0 -0.2 48.1 48.5 8.3 10.1 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.5 10.1 -0.3 47.0 47.9 8.5 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.0 7.3 -0.3 46.4 47.6 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.1 10.3 -0.4 44.9 47.2 8.4 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.6 6.0 -0.3 45.1 47.4 3.3 4.8 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.5 9.0 9.9 -0.5 41.7 45.5 7.9 9.8 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 10.1 -0.3 46.4 47.5 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.8 10.2 -0.3 44.0 48.0 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.2 8.9 -0.3 46.7 48.0 8.0 9.4 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.5 9.1 -0.6 41.8 44.3 8.2 10.0 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.3 8.2 0.1 50.2 51.8 7.0 9.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.9 9.8 -0.5 41.9 45.5 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.0 8.7 -0.4 41.8 45.4 6.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.1 6.8 -0.2 48.1 48.2 6.7 7.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.6 10.4 -0.5 42.7 46.1 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------