***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.9 -1.9 26.8 26.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 9.1 9.1 10.0 -1.4 29.3 31.4 9.2 10.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 11.2 11.2 10.2 -1.5 29.5 29.8 11.3 13.2 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 6.4 6.4 8.0 -1.7 24.8 24.8 6.6 8.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 8.0 8.0 8.4 -1.7 26.0 25.1 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 7.1 7.4 6.2 -1.9 22.0 21.4 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 9.4 9.6 10.0 -1.5 27.5 29.9 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 2.7 2.6 6.4 -2.0 20.3 21.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 8.9 9.0 9.1 -1.4 28.6 28.3 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 8.8 8.8 7.5 -1.7 25.3 25.7 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 8.0 7.9 7.9 -1.8 22.4 23.5 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 7.0 7.0 7.0 -2.0 19.1 21.6 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 7.8 7.4 7.1 -1.8 18.9 22.8 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 9.8 9.6 9.0 -1.4 29.9 29.0 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 9.5 9.7 9.8 -1.2 30.2 30.0 9.9 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 9.3 9.4 7.6 -1.8 22.1 23.5 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 9.3 9.4 9.8 -1.2 29.6 33.0 9.6 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 7.8 7.9 6.7 -1.6 27.2 25.8 8.0 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 9.3 9.6 10.1 -1.3 30.1 31.7 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 4.2 4.1 4.7 -1.9 19.3 21.9 4.5 5.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 8.5 9.1 9.9 -1.6 28.6 27.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 8.6 9.1 10.0 -1.2 29.7 33.3 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 8.7 9.0 10.0 -1.3 30.0 31.3 9.1 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 8.8 9.2 8.7 -1.4 30.5 29.1 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 9.4 9.3 8.8 -2.2 23.5 22.3 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 8.0 7.6 6.7 -2.0 19.5 23.3 8.6 10.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 8.9 8.9 9.2 -2.0 25.4 24.4 9.6 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.8 -1.4 27.8 27.9 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 6.7 6.3 6.0 -1.7 23.1 23.7 7.2 8.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 9.4 9.6 10.2 -1.5 28.4 29.9 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------