***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 44.5 39.9 43.8 103.7 55.1 51.3 22.5 38.6 50.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.5 39.8 42.6 102.1 57.8 50.8 23.4 36.9 44.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 47.8 50.9 46.6 107.5 57.3 54.5 24.7 42.6 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 73.8 68.2 51.9 97.9 50.5 49.9 36.8 67.0 84.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 50.9 50.2 51.7 101.7 56.4 52.7 28.9 47.3 56.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 54.3 53.3 56.2 100.7 56.6 51.7 29.8 49.1 63.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.6 38.5 42.2 99.7 51.9 49.2 21.0 38.0 53.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 67.5 75.0 53.6 109.5 59.9 56.4 48.3 64.2 76.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 42.5 44.6 49.0 99.7 56.5 51.9 31.3 37.2 51.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 52.7 56.4 54.9 106.3 59.2 55.7 36.5 49.9 62.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 46.0 56.2 48.9 109.3 61.8 56.6 31.5 41.6 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 47.6 58.4 47.4 114.1 62.8 57.7 30.3 45.1 58.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 48.1 61.1 53.0 109.2 60.6 55.2 36.2 42.7 67.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 69.3 71.9 58.8 115.0 64.3 59.9 43.6 65.9 72.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 46.1 39.4 49.1 92.7 50.4 47.4 28.4 39.1 58.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 42.4 49.0 51.4 109.5 60.8 55.7 29.2 38.3 54.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 17.9 33.8 39.2 93.5 50.7 47.8 17.0 33.3 45.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 55.8 55.2 60.8 108.2 62.4 56.6 35.0 48.2 59.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 50.7 47.3 43.3 104.6 59.5 52.4 25.4 44.7 50.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 38.9 59.5 67.9 102.0 58.9 52.1 42.2 53.1 75.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 41.1 47.6 47.7 106.1 57.9 54.2 32.0 37.9 53.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.5 40.6 42.3 100.4 54.5 50.9 21.2 38.0 43.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 41.6 44.1 44.8 104.8 58.3 53.4 28.1 35.6 52.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 52.7 58.7 57.0 112.2 62.5 58.6 34.7 48.2 60.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 50.8 48.4 54.9 107.1 56.4 53.7 24.1 45.0 60.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 50.2 48.7 46.6 102.9 55.6 52.7 34.3 44.9 53.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 47.3 43.4 50.6 106.0 56.2 52.4 29.5 42.0 51.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 50.8 47.0 50.4 97.3 51.9 49.7 27.6 45.9 60.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 79.0 81.4 63.0 106.6 61.6 56.0 53.2 69.5 91.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.0 39.3 44.3 105.4 57.2 52.0 20.3 34.2 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------