***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.3 7.4 9.9 113.7 71.3 52.9 0.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.4 9.9 10.5 121.6 72.2 55.7 0.6 2.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 4.8 11.6 10.4 118.7 72.7 56.0 0.5 1.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.8 11.9 115.9 68.0 51.6 1.4 5.3 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.2 13.4 11.2 111.2 70.3 52.4 0.7 4.6 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.3 10.3 12.0 121.1 67.2 50.8 0.6 5.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 9.6 10.3 115.4 68.6 53.8 0.7 1.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.0 14.1 10.5 102.7 66.9 52.0 3.1 10.2 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.5 10.5 10.9 106.1 69.2 52.2 0.5 6.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.9 11.6 108.3 70.0 53.5 2.3 9.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.7 14.9 10.7 119.8 73.2 54.7 0.7 5.8 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 10.7 9.0 106.6 66.2 50.7 0.9 4.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.3 12.8 10.1 111.8 66.6 49.8 1.1 7.1 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.1 19.0 13.5 124.7 72.5 57.4 0.8 7.8 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.1 9.2 12.0 119.5 73.7 51.0 0.5 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.4 12.7 10.6 123.2 70.6 52.6 1.4 5.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.5 11.4 10.1 116.9 70.7 54.0 0.2 1.9 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 17.2 12.6 107.9 66.5 53.6 2.1 4.0 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.4 10.5 122.5 73.1 56.4 0.5 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.6 13.1 91.9 58.6 50.0 1.3 8.4 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.9 8.7 10.1 105.9 71.2 52.7 0.1 4.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 9.4 10.3 119.7 72.3 55.5 0.4 2.7 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.6 12.5 10.9 122.0 73.1 56.2 0.3 3.2 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.6 15.2 12.4 118.9 71.5 56.4 0.4 4.2 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 11.1 11.4 111.4 71.0 53.0 0.5 2.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 14.2 9.3 108.3 64.5 49.2 1.1 5.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 10.1 11.0 113.0 71.7 53.6 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.8 9.5 12.0 124.3 71.2 51.6 1.5 3.9 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 17.6 12.7 103.3 64.2 52.5 4.2 10.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.4 12.9 10.6 122.6 73.1 55.9 0.5 3.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------