***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.2 7.3 70.0 53.4 40.9 0.3 4.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.0 8.1 72.6 51.8 41.4 1.5 7.8 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.6 7.6 67.4 52.5 41.9 0.8 8.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.2 12.1 10.1 73.0 51.2 43.5 4.4 12.1 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 5.1 9.2 70.6 51.4 42.5 2.6 4.8 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.5 5.8 10.6 59.6 45.0 41.4 3.6 7.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.3 12.6 7.8 70.1 52.7 40.0 1.2 10.2 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.7 12.2 9.5 69.0 48.8 44.4 9.8 12.5 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.9 8.3 65.0 49.8 40.1 1.9 7.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 8.3 9.6 67.9 47.8 42.5 3.0 8.3 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.5 4.3 8.4 68.4 48.9 43.1 2.3 4.6 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.5 9.9 8.0 68.5 51.8 44.6 1.6 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.3 5.8 9.2 63.1 48.7 42.6 2.8 5.8 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.1 9.6 66.8 46.7 43.0 2.7 8.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.3 6.9 9.9 68.4 54.7 43.9 1.1 5.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.5 5.8 9.0 66.7 47.4 42.8 1.2 6.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.8 8.1 72.0 50.0 41.2 0.4 7.8 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 8.9 11.1 70.3 45.8 43.4 4.4 11.5 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.5 8.0 70.9 52.8 41.7 0.9 6.7 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.9 9.0 13.2 68.4 44.1 42.3 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.9 7.9 70.0 53.3 43.1 4.1 7.4 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.4 8.9 76.2 50.3 42.7 0.1 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.9 8.8 7.7 63.8 53.3 40.5 1.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 1.7 4.3 9.6 68.6 48.4 43.4 3.3 4.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.9 9.9 78.2 55.2 44.4 2.1 10.5 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.9 6.5 7.6 54.3 47.2 41.3 4.7 7.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.8 8.9 74.2 55.5 42.7 0.6 4.6 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.3 9.7 67.6 51.4 43.1 1.2 9.7 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.3 14.8 11.8 70.5 46.5 43.2 6.3 17.3 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.5 7.9 71.5 53.2 41.7 0.8 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------