***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 8.6 8.3 66.1 57.0 43.9 1.0 4.6 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.5 7.7 62.1 50.0 38.9 1.0 4.6 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.9 9.3 75.7 58.1 44.8 2.9 7.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.0 17.2 9.5 60.7 55.3 42.8 10.1 15.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.7 9.5 66.8 57.0 43.1 8.1 13.5 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 10.2 11.4 69.1 53.5 44.0 1.5 8.6 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.9 8.0 63.1 53.2 40.8 1.2 6.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.7 15.8 10.2 77.1 56.4 45.2 6.2 13.8 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.8 9.3 69.3 57.1 40.8 4.4 11.0 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.9 10.5 74.6 56.8 44.3 6.5 11.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.4 14.7 9.2 74.1 59.0 47.2 2.7 12.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.4 8.8 78.1 57.7 44.6 2.3 5.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.1 10.2 75.0 57.2 45.4 2.6 6.8 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 15.0 11.5 82.5 56.4 45.0 6.1 11.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.6 13.7 10.7 68.6 58.6 44.4 2.3 9.6 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.8 9.8 72.6 56.7 45.9 0.7 5.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.4 3.6 7.0 55.2 50.8 39.0 0.5 3.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.7 11.8 76.3 54.7 45.1 5.3 9.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.1 7.8 64.5 49.2 39.7 3.0 7.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.0 13.9 74.1 51.9 43.7 4.2 11.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.4 9.0 71.6 58.2 45.0 4.9 9.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.6 7.3 58.8 45.3 39.6 0.8 5.4 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.0 10.4 8.4 71.4 53.6 41.7 3.6 9.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.7 15.1 11.5 82.9 59.0 46.7 6.6 11.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.9 16.7 10.3 68.5 57.0 44.4 3.6 8.0 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.5 11.2 8.1 67.1 56.6 43.4 1.4 5.4 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.0 9.8 68.4 56.9 44.0 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.1 9.5 61.5 56.0 42.7 4.5 12.2 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.7 16.6 12.7 76.8 52.3 45.4 6.3 15.4 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.9 8.4 67.5 53.1 41.7 2.0 6.8 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------