***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 14.4 23.8 18.3 173.4 81.5 71.4 2.0 5.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 13.8 17.5 16.2 172.2 80.3 70.9 2.5 7.1 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.0 21.4 19.2 175.2 79.4 73.0 3.0 7.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 20.8 20.4 153.6 76.2 70.8 3.0 8.1 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.9 15.1 21.7 163.0 78.1 72.3 1.6 5.2 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.3 17.2 22.2 191.0 80.5 75.1 2.5 6.3 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 11.5 17.3 16.1 167.1 77.0 70.3 2.3 3.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 23.8 37.7 23.4 199.0 82.5 76.6 4.5 11.7 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.5 16.8 20.4 162.2 77.7 71.8 1.7 3.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 19.9 26.4 23.2 182.0 80.7 74.8 2.6 7.6 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.2 18.3 20.6 185.6 82.9 74.8 1.4 4.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 15.9 25.5 21.6 212.2 85.4 78.3 1.7 3.7 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 16.4 26.4 23.5 206.1 83.6 77.7 1.6 5.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 19.9 31.6 24.3 201.0 81.8 77.5 3.6 5.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.1 14.2 16.6 128.3 75.8 66.1 1.5 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 9.6 16.6 22.0 193.9 83.6 75.8 1.9 4.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 10.2 12.2 14.1 149.6 75.7 65.8 1.6 4.9 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 19.1 28.0 25.3 191.0 81.3 76.0 3.6 8.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 18.3 27.2 17.0 180.4 81.6 72.5 2.9 4.6 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 21.8 30.6 27.6 194.6 79.6 74.6 5.8 10.7 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 14.9 19.6 20.7 178.3 79.6 73.7 2.3 4.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 14.7 19.0 15.9 167.1 78.7 70.4 1.9 7.3 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.9 23.9 17.8 177.7 80.5 72.9 3.2 5.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 16.7 25.6 23.4 187.9 81.2 76.2 3.8 5.3 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 15.6 22.3 23.3 174.9 78.8 74.1 3.1 4.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 17.4 22.6 21.6 202.1 83.7 79.4 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.7 24.3 21.0 177.6 81.1 72.6 2.3 4.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.0 11.9 19.2 156.2 77.0 69.6 1.1 5.9 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 30.6 45.1 25.8 191.8 80.5 75.4 5.0 8.1 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 14.0 18.9 17.4 176.8 80.1 72.6 1.3 5.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------