***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 19.4 19.6 18.1 -1.3 30.5 33.7 19.8 20.5 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.1 18.0 -1.4 31.0 32.3 20.1 21.1 21.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 19.9 20.1 18.2 -1.2 31.1 34.3 20.3 21.0 21.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.9 16.4 -1.2 32.1 34.5 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.7 16.9 -1.1 32.6 35.4 20.7 21.0 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.2 19.9 15.7 -0.9 37.4 39.4 19.7 20.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 19.7 19.7 17.9 -1.4 30.6 32.4 19.8 20.6 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.5 16.0 -0.9 34.8 40.0 10.4 11.0 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.5 -1.1 34.3 36.3 20.4 21.1 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.2 16.5 -0.9 34.9 38.8 20.1 20.7 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 20.0 20.2 16.8 -1.0 32.4 37.1 20.2 20.9 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 19.6 19.5 16.6 -1.0 31.2 37.7 19.6 20.6 21.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.0 20.5 16.3 -1.1 29.9 36.1 20.6 21.2 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.6 17.5 -0.9 34.2 39.0 20.4 21.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 19.3 19.5 16.9 -1.2 31.1 33.5 19.7 20.6 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.2 16.6 -1.1 31.6 36.5 21.3 21.8 22.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.4 19.6 17.7 -1.3 32.4 33.2 19.6 20.1 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.2 19.5 16.2 -0.8 36.3 41.1 19.3 20.2 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.8 19.9 18.1 -1.3 31.5 33.2 19.9 20.8 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.7 16.4 14.5 -0.5 40.2 44.0 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 19.8 20.5 17.9 -1.2 32.7 35.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.2 20.2 17.9 -1.2 33.9 34.8 20.2 21.1 21.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.1 18.2 -1.2 32.2 35.2 20.1 20.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.2 20.5 17.4 -0.9 34.4 38.8 20.2 21.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.8 16.8 -1.2 31.8 34.8 19.9 20.4 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.2 16.1 -1.2 28.4 35.2 20.4 20.9 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 19.5 20.0 17.5 -1.2 31.6 34.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 19.1 19.8 16.8 -1.2 30.5 34.4 19.9 20.3 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.3 15.5 -0.6 37.5 42.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 19.6 19.8 18.1 -1.4 30.2 32.4 20.0 20.7 21.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------