***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.0 16.4 -0.6 39.6 45.7 15.8 17.7 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 15.7 16.7 16.3 -0.8 38.6 43.7 15.9 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.0 17.1 16.5 -0.6 37.4 45.0 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.5 14.7 -0.4 39.9 47.0 8.8 11.3 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.3 15.2 -0.4 40.9 47.2 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.4 14.3 0.0 50.1 51.2 15.5 16.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 15.4 16.6 16.2 -0.7 38.5 44.4 15.5 17.5 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 8.3 14.4 -0.1 46.1 49.6 7.1 8.6 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.1 15.6 -0.4 41.4 47.3 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 15.7 17.3 14.9 -0.3 44.4 48.5 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.3 15.1 -0.3 46.3 48.6 16.3 17.9 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 15.2 17.2 15.0 -0.2 45.9 49.1 15.9 17.4 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.8 14.8 -0.2 48.0 49.4 16.8 18.1 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 16.5 17.6 15.7 -0.6 39.6 46.1 17.2 19.4 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.3 14.9 -0.4 40.2 46.5 15.8 17.3 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.3 14.9 -0.3 47.1 48.8 17.3 18.4 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.2 16.7 16.1 -0.7 40.3 44.2 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.8 14.7 -0.2 45.0 48.9 15.5 17.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 15.7 17.1 16.4 -0.8 37.8 43.8 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 11.8 14.1 13.1 0.1 49.0 51.2 12.8 14.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 16.1 17.2 16.1 -0.5 39.0 46.3 16.2 18.5 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.4 16.2 -0.7 38.9 44.1 16.2 18.3 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 15.8 17.2 16.4 -0.7 37.2 44.4 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 16.2 17.2 15.7 -0.4 40.0 46.9 16.5 19.1 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.7 15.2 -0.4 41.2 47.3 15.8 17.3 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.9 14.7 -0.2 47.6 49.3 16.4 17.0 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 15.8 17.4 15.8 -0.4 41.9 47.0 16.0 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 15.7 16.3 14.9 -0.4 40.2 46.6 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.4 12.9 14.0 -0.1 45.4 49.7 12.2 13.7 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.4 16.4 -0.7 37.6 44.0 15.8 17.5 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------