***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 20.9 20.6 18.3 0.0 48.6 50.6 19.7 20.7 21.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 21.5 21.1 18.1 -0.2 46.7 49.1 18.6 21.2 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 21.3 21.1 18.4 0.0 51.0 51.2 19.7 21.1 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.9 16.6 0.0 50.1 51.0 11.2 13.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.1 17.1 0.1 52.6 52.4 19.5 21.1 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.0 21.2 16.0 0.3 53.5 54.8 17.9 20.6 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 21.2 20.4 18.0 -0.2 46.4 48.9 19.0 20.8 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.9 16.3 0.4 53.9 55.8 9.2 11.8 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 21.8 21.6 17.5 0.2 54.3 52.7 19.7 21.6 22.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.8 16.8 0.3 54.7 54.8 19.8 21.1 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.8 17.0 0.2 53.4 53.6 20.5 21.6 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.3 16.9 0.2 52.3 54.2 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.0 16.5 0.1 51.0 53.4 20.0 21.9 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.2 17.7 0.4 57.6 55.1 19.8 21.5 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.1 16.7 -0.2 48.1 49.5 18.2 20.1 22.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.9 22.8 16.8 0.2 52.6 53.4 20.4 22.7 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 20.8 20.2 17.9 -0.2 46.3 49.4 18.6 20.4 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.6 16.5 0.5 57.7 57.1 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.0 18.3 -0.1 48.2 49.9 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.1 14.9 0.7 59.8 59.5 15.0 17.9 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.4 18.0 0.1 51.4 51.5 19.6 21.3 21.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.7 20.9 18.0 0.0 47.1 50.8 19.0 21.4 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.6 21.3 18.4 0.1 52.5 51.4 19.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.6 17.6 0.4 56.2 55.0 19.9 21.3 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 20.5 20.3 17.0 0.0 50.1 51.2 19.2 20.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.2 16.4 0.0 48.2 52.3 19.3 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 21.3 21.0 17.6 0.0 49.5 51.2 19.7 21.1 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.3 16.8 -0.1 49.0 50.7 17.5 20.5 22.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.1 15.9 0.7 57.0 58.5 14.7 16.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 21.3 20.8 18.3 -0.2 47.2 49.2 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------