***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.5 19.1 -1.2 36.2 40.0 19.6 21.4 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.1 19.0 -1.3 36.0 39.5 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.0 19.3 -1.1 37.1 40.8 20.5 21.9 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.2 17.6 -1.2 34.5 39.4 13.1 13.9 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.2 17.9 -1.1 35.8 41.0 20.8 21.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.2 16.7 -1.0 37.3 41.2 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.9 18.9 -1.3 35.9 39.6 20.5 21.9 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.4 17.0 -0.8 40.8 43.8 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.0 18.3 -1.1 37.5 41.6 20.6 21.9 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.1 17.5 -0.9 39.7 43.3 20.1 21.8 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.2 17.7 -1.0 37.8 41.7 20.6 22.0 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 21.9 20.4 17.6 -1.0 38.7 41.6 20.0 21.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.6 20.8 17.2 -1.3 34.2 39.6 20.7 22.0 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.0 18.5 -0.7 42.5 45.1 21.2 22.1 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.0 20.2 17.8 -1.3 31.8 37.6 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.8 21.7 17.5 -1.2 36.0 40.3 21.6 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.4 18.7 -1.2 35.5 40.2 20.2 21.4 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.7 17.2 -0.6 43.1 45.5 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.2 20.6 19.2 -1.2 36.9 40.4 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.2 17.4 15.5 -0.4 43.8 47.5 15.9 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.1 18.8 -1.1 37.3 41.0 20.5 21.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.0 19.0 -1.0 37.1 42.0 20.3 22.2 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.0 19.2 -1.0 39.0 42.1 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.7 21.6 18.4 -0.7 42.5 44.3 20.3 22.1 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.5 17.8 -1.1 37.8 40.9 19.8 21.3 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.7 20.3 17.1 -1.3 34.9 38.9 20.0 22.0 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 19.7 21.1 18.5 -1.1 37.7 40.9 20.8 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.1 17.8 -1.3 33.3 38.3 20.0 21.8 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.6 16.6 16.5 -0.5 44.2 47.0 15.4 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.0 19.1 -1.3 36.0 39.5 20.7 21.8 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------