***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 20.2 19.8 18.6 -3.3 15.1 19.7 21.3 23.0 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 20.5 20.0 18.5 -3.4 17.1 19.3 21.6 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 20.6 20.4 18.8 -3.2 18.9 21.0 20.8 23.2 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 13.3 12.9 16.7 -3.0 18.2 20.4 15.0 15.8 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 20.7 20.2 17.4 -3.1 17.8 20.5 21.4 23.8 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 20.1 19.6 15.8 -2.8 16.3 21.6 20.6 22.7 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 19.8 19.2 18.4 -3.4 15.1 18.4 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 9.5 9.1 16.1 -2.8 19.7 23.2 11.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 20.4 20.0 18.3 -3.0 19.3 21.8 21.1 23.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 19.9 19.2 16.9 -3.0 19.6 22.8 21.0 22.8 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 20.5 19.9 17.3 -3.0 17.6 20.9 21.1 23.5 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 19.5 18.7 16.8 -3.0 16.7 21.0 20.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 20.5 19.6 16.6 -3.2 14.4 19.0 21.6 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.1 -2.7 23.1 26.1 21.6 22.8 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 21.0 21.1 18.3 -2.8 17.5 19.8 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 21.1 20.6 17.1 -3.1 16.5 19.8 22.1 24.1 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 19.8 19.7 18.2 -3.3 18.1 19.7 21.5 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 19.5 19.2 16.3 -2.8 22.6 24.7 20.1 21.8 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 20.3 20.0 18.7 -3.2 18.7 20.5 21.1 22.7 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 15.7 14.9 14.7 -2.6 22.9 25.8 16.3 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 20.4 20.1 18.7 -3.2 19.9 21.7 21.0 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 20.6 20.7 18.4 -3.1 21.1 21.2 21.3 23.0 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 20.1 20.2 18.8 -3.0 20.8 22.9 21.3 23.1 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 19.9 19.6 17.8 -2.9 22.3 24.4 21.2 22.8 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 20.3 20.1 17.4 -3.2 17.5 20.4 21.3 22.9 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 20.6 19.5 16.2 -3.2 12.4 18.3 21.0 23.8 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 20.1 19.8 18.0 -3.3 16.6 19.4 21.0 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 20.8 20.7 17.5 -2.8 18.4 20.5 22.6 23.1 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 14.7 14.4 15.7 -2.7 22.7 25.6 15.3 17.4 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 20.1 19.6 18.6 -3.4 16.7 19.1 21.2 23.1 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------