***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.3 9.8 -0.8 34.7 36.0 8.3 8.8 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.2 9.7 -0.7 37.5 38.1 8.1 8.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.5 9.6 -0.7 38.2 37.1 10.4 11.1 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 5.5 7.5 -0.7 32.3 34.8 5.6 6.3 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.5 7.7 -0.6 37.2 38.2 7.4 8.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.9 6.4 -0.5 38.3 40.6 6.8 7.3 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.2 9.6 -0.8 35.1 37.0 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.5 2.8 6.4 -0.6 34.6 38.2 2.7 3.2 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.5 8.3 -0.5 38.4 39.3 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.1 6.9 -0.5 35.8 38.8 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.5 7.8 7.4 -0.5 35.4 37.9 7.4 8.4 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.5 6.3 7.0 -0.7 31.6 35.7 6.5 7.6 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.8 7.4 6.7 -0.5 35.7 38.4 7.2 8.1 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.6 8.2 -0.5 36.2 40.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.8 8.2 -0.7 33.4 34.9 8.8 9.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.6 7.2 -0.5 34.9 38.3 8.5 9.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.4 9.5 -0.5 40.3 40.9 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.3 6.3 -0.5 37.9 40.2 7.0 7.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.4 9.7 -0.7 38.3 38.5 8.3 8.6 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.6 5.1 -0.4 39.9 42.9 3.1 4.5 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.0 7.4 9.2 -0.7 36.7 37.7 7.4 8.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.4 9.5 -0.6 38.1 40.0 7.3 7.8 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.9 9.4 -0.6 37.2 38.8 7.7 8.5 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.1 8.0 -0.5 37.5 39.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.2 8.3 -0.8 34.9 36.1 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 7.2 7.5 6.9 -0.6 33.3 36.7 7.5 8.2 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.3 9.1 -0.8 36.1 36.8 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.2 7.8 -0.7 32.7 35.3 7.2 7.5 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.2 5.9 -0.5 38.4 40.9 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.5 9.8 -0.8 36.4 36.8 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------