***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.3 8.5 -0.1 47.7 48.9 4.6 6.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.4 8.2 -0.2 45.7 48.9 4.0 6.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.9 8.2 -0.1 47.2 49.5 6.5 8.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.6 5.9 -0.1 47.8 49.2 2.1 4.0 5.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.2 6.1 0.0 48.1 49.7 3.4 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.5 4.8 0.2 52.0 52.3 2.6 4.5 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.8 8.2 -0.2 46.0 48.4 4.2 6.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.7 0.8 5.0 0.1 47.5 51.4 -1.0 1.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.4 6.6 0.0 50.4 50.1 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.9 5.4 0.1 47.5 50.7 4.8 6.1 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.8 5.8 0.0 47.3 50.2 3.8 5.9 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.7 5.5 0.0 46.2 49.8 3.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.7 5.0 -0.1 47.7 48.9 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.2 6.7 0.0 45.2 50.0 4.8 6.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.7 6.4 -0.1 47.6 48.8 5.1 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.2 5.4 0.0 47.3 49.6 5.0 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.1 8.0 -0.1 46.9 49.5 4.6 6.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.9 4.9 0.1 46.1 50.8 3.6 5.4 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.3 8.2 -0.1 46.1 49.3 4.1 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.4 3.9 0.3 49.5 52.8 0.0 1.4 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.5 7.6 0.0 47.8 49.4 4.5 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.6 8.0 -0.1 47.3 49.5 3.8 5.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.9 8.0 -0.1 46.6 49.5 4.3 6.1 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.6 6.5 0.0 45.1 50.5 4.7 6.3 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.2 6.8 0.0 47.1 49.8 4.4 6.6 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.2 5.3 -0.2 44.6 47.8 4.1 5.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.3 7.6 -0.1 47.9 49.8 4.1 6.7 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.3 6.1 -0.1 48.6 49.0 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.8 4.6 0.1 46.7 50.5 2.7 5.2 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.8 8.4 -0.2 45.8 48.7 4.5 7.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------