***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.2 9.6 -0.4 48.7 47.0 7.2 8.4 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.9 9.4 -0.3 49.3 48.0 7.5 8.9 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.0 9.4 -0.3 48.6 48.4 10.1 11.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.0 7.2 -0.5 44.0 44.6 5.4 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.1 7.4 -0.3 47.0 47.2 6.6 8.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.2 6.2 -0.1 41.6 48.6 5.7 7.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.1 9.4 -0.4 49.0 47.4 7.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.3 6.3 -0.1 47.6 49.5 2.7 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.7 7.9 -0.2 47.5 48.6 8.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.3 6.6 -0.1 46.7 48.9 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.4 7.2 -0.1 47.5 48.3 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.1 6.9 -0.2 45.6 48.0 5.5 6.4 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.3 6.5 -0.2 40.3 47.3 5.8 7.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.3 8.0 -0.1 51.9 51.1 8.3 9.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.4 7.5 -0.6 40.5 42.5 7.8 8.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.1 6.9 -0.2 44.2 47.2 7.5 9.3 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.5 9.2 -0.2 51.3 50.1 8.0 9.3 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.6 6.1 -0.1 50.1 49.8 6.5 7.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.0 9.4 -0.3 49.7 48.4 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.5 5.1 0.0 52.1 52.3 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.1 8.8 -0.3 47.0 47.9 6.9 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.5 9.2 -0.2 53.2 50.2 6.9 8.4 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.1 9.1 -0.3 50.2 48.7 7.4 9.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.1 7.8 -0.1 50.8 50.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.7 8.0 -0.4 49.4 46.5 7.4 8.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.5 6.8 6.8 -0.4 38.4 44.4 6.3 7.6 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.2 8.8 -0.4 49.6 47.0 7.4 9.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.5 7.4 -0.5 42.2 43.9 6.1 7.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.9 5.8 0.0 51.1 51.3 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.3 9.5 -0.4 48.4 47.5 7.8 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------