***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.4 10.5 -1.2 31.7 35.4 8.5 10.0 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.5 8.7 10.4 -1.0 33.3 37.4 8.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.5 10.3 -1.1 30.9 35.4 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.4 5.4 8.1 -1.2 27.9 32.9 6.1 7.3 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.0 8.3 -1.0 29.5 35.0 7.1 8.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.3 6.5 7.0 -0.9 32.0 37.2 6.6 8.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 8.1 8.3 10.4 -1.1 32.6 36.7 8.4 9.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.7 7.0 -1.0 28.5 35.6 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.7 8.8 -1.0 31.7 36.0 8.9 9.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 7.7 7.7 7.4 -1.0 28.5 35.5 7.9 9.9 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 7.3 7.2 8.0 -1.0 27.4 35.6 7.4 9.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 6.1 6.2 7.6 -1.1 26.1 33.2 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 6.6 6.7 7.2 -1.1 26.5 33.3 7.4 8.3 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 8.7 9.0 8.8 -0.9 30.7 37.9 9.0 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.6 8.1 8.6 -1.3 26.2 30.9 8.5 10.4 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.7 -1.1 26.0 33.8 8.8 9.9 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.6 8.8 10.2 -0.8 36.2 39.7 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 6.6 6.3 6.9 -1.0 27.9 35.2 7.1 8.6 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 7.9 8.6 10.3 -1.0 32.6 37.4 8.6 9.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.6 5.8 -0.8 32.6 38.8 3.7 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.2 9.7 -1.1 30.8 35.2 8.2 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 7.3 7.8 10.2 -0.8 34.1 39.7 7.8 8.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.5 10.0 -1.0 31.9 37.0 8.5 8.9 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 7.8 8.1 8.6 -1.0 29.4 35.6 8.2 9.8 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.4 8.9 -1.1 29.3 34.5 8.7 9.7 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 7.3 6.8 7.5 -1.2 26.0 31.8 7.4 9.2 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 8.0 7.8 9.7 -1.1 30.6 35.3 8.1 10.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 6.5 6.5 8.4 -1.2 25.9 31.6 6.9 8.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.9 6.6 6.5 -0.9 30.2 37.5 6.8 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.6 10.5 -1.1 32.2 36.3 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------