***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9.2 9.7 10.7 -1.7 27.6 29.2 9.8 10.6 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.5 10.7 -1.3 31.6 33.9 9.5 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 11.4 11.6 10.7 -1.5 29.9 31.1 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 6.6 6.7 8.7 -1.2 27.0 32.2 7.5 8.5 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.4 9.3 -0.9 30.8 35.1 8.8 10.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 7.2 7.6 7.4 -1.1 27.1 33.2 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 9.8 9.8 10.6 -1.4 28.5 32.8 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.6 7.3 -1.4 28.6 30.9 4.1 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 9.1 9.5 9.8 -0.9 32.7 35.2 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 8.9 9.2 8.1 -1.1 30.4 33.4 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 8.5 8.3 8.8 -1.1 29.6 33.4 8.4 10.4 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 7.3 7.4 8.0 -1.3 26.7 31.1 8.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 8.0 8.6 8.2 -0.7 31.8 37.8 8.6 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 9.7 9.9 9.4 -1.1 32.8 33.9 9.9 10.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.1 -1.0 29.6 33.5 10.2 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 9.5 10.1 8.7 -0.8 30.3 36.4 10.3 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 9.7 9.8 10.5 -1.0 35.6 36.7 9.8 10.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 7.9 8.6 7.3 -1.0 30.8 34.6 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.7 -1.3 31.8 33.7 10.0 10.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.5 4.4 5.7 -1.0 29.7 34.2 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 8.6 9.4 10.6 -1.2 31.0 32.4 9.4 10.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.1 9.3 10.5 -1.1 32.8 35.0 9.3 9.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 9.0 9.4 10.6 -1.2 31.4 33.2 9.4 9.9 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.0 9.2 9.2 -1.1 32.5 33.5 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 9.6 10.1 9.7 -1.5 27.7 30.2 10.1 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 8.1 8.5 8.0 -0.8 31.9 37.7 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 9.4 9.5 10.1 -1.5 28.2 30.7 10.2 11.4 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 7.6 7.4 9.4 -1.0 28.6 33.6 8.0 9.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.0 7.1 6.8 -1.0 29.7 33.2 7.3 8.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.8 -1.5 29.4 31.6 10.1 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------