***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 23.4 37.9 39.2 91.1 53.0 47.7 25.5 36.1 43.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 22.7 31.8 34.3 83.9 45.2 42.9 23.5 36.7 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 29.5 41.0 37.0 87.8 49.6 45.3 25.6 41.3 50.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 40.2 59.8 37.9 77.7 46.2 40.1 37.9 63.6 83.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 30.7 46.0 36.7 82.4 46.4 41.4 28.9 49.0 57.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 23.8 32.2 33.3 68.7 35.9 35.2 29.1 44.4 61.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 19.2 28.1 34.8 83.8 45.3 43.2 19.9 36.0 52.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 45.0 59.6 42.5 85.1 46.4 42.5 45.6 65.1 74.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 26.7 39.7 38.7 86.4 48.1 43.3 29.2 40.9 51.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 36.8 49.1 42.6 85.0 46.1 42.3 39.7 50.3 59.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 26.4 38.8 35.9 82.4 46.8 41.4 30.2 41.3 55.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 27.2 40.9 35.2 82.7 45.9 41.5 24.2 48.6 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 29.1 37.3 34.6 75.4 40.4 38.7 33.8 42.7 66.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 45.1 56.5 46.1 85.6 45.2 43.1 44.5 63.3 71.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 22.6 31.6 33.2 68.2 42.8 37.3 26.9 37.9 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 22.3 34.0 34.4 78.8 43.0 40.4 25.6 38.3 55.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.4 30.7 36.4 89.3 46.3 45.7 17.0 34.0 44.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 32.0 45.8 45.5 85.0 44.3 41.6 34.6 47.2 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 22.7 33.4 34.9 85.1 46.1 43.4 26.3 40.2 50.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 35.5 49.0 54.0 86.3 42.1 42.8 38.5 52.3 75.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 31.2 38.5 38.1 88.7 50.5 45.1 32.6 38.3 47.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 21.5 33.7 39.8 95.2 51.2 48.0 21.9 31.8 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 26.4 32.8 36.0 85.5 46.0 43.5 28.9 35.4 47.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 33.2 47.9 41.5 83.7 45.3 41.8 32.8 50.2 59.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 27.8 42.6 42.4 87.8 50.7 45.6 24.5 41.7 59.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 23.5 35.7 33.0 71.5 37.5 37.1 34.3 45.1 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 41.0 36.3 41.6 90.1 51.9 47.5 28.1 34.4 51.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 25.8 41.9 33.5 72.1 43.3 38.1 27.9 47.0 58.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 49.9 62.6 49.0 86.8 45.2 42.6 56.0 67.0 86.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.8 29.2 35.2 84.8 46.1 43.6 21.3 30.5 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------