***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.1 3.6 11.0 116.6 64.8 45.4 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 7.9 10.1 105.3 64.8 46.5 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.0 8.4 11.7 126.5 69.2 48.5 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 12.4 13.1 113.0 66.8 46.9 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.2 13.3 12.9 125.1 70.3 48.4 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.0 13.3 12.0 111.7 66.2 47.1 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.8 7.6 9.7 98.6 63.2 46.4 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 14.1 13.3 109.4 65.7 45.9 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.4 13.6 13.2 129.0 71.5 48.9 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.4 15.6 14.0 119.1 68.8 48.0 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.7 13.3 12.1 120.7 69.5 47.7 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.6 13.5 11.6 112.5 67.9 46.2 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 15.3 12.3 115.6 67.8 47.7 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.3 15.2 13.9 111.9 66.5 49.8 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.2 10.0 11.7 95.4 64.0 44.1 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.2 11.1 12.1 118.6 69.1 48.2 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.9 7.6 10.1 103.2 65.6 48.7 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.8 17.2 14.8 115.7 68.1 48.8 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 8.9 10.7 113.6 66.0 47.1 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.6 16.1 101.2 61.9 47.3 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.1 9.1 12.4 131.7 70.2 49.3 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.7 9.6 11.2 114.0 68.1 50.6 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.1 10.6 11.4 120.5 68.3 49.2 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.5 14.3 13.9 122.1 69.3 49.8 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.4 6.4 12.7 120.1 66.1 48.2 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.9 17.6 11.8 108.2 64.7 47.2 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.6 5.8 11.4 112.7 64.2 46.6 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.7 11.4 12.3 107.5 66.0 45.5 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.6 21.9 15.3 112.1 66.5 49.4 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 0.7 7.3 10.6 109.7 65.1 47.2 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------