***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.2 8.9 82.5 62.7 45.5 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.1 8.5 86.7 60.7 46.8 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.2 10.8 8.9 80.9 61.5 46.2 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.9 12.9 8.1 63.6 56.3 41.2 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.5 7.5 63.8 54.7 42.5 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.9 7.4 58.5 53.1 41.0 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.3 14.2 8.7 88.9 62.3 47.4 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 11.7 8.7 69.6 54.3 44.1 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.5 8.5 69.7 55.2 44.1 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.6 9.5 73.0 55.9 45.2 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.6 7.2 65.0 53.7 42.7 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.2 6.8 63.3 51.9 42.7 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.4 7.1 61.5 53.2 41.7 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.4 11.4 82.3 59.4 45.9 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.4 4.7 8.1 63.4 58.4 42.3 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.1 4.2 6.8 60.6 53.4 41.8 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.7 10.4 8.8 91.3 62.4 47.8 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.0 11.7 11.0 79.7 56.5 45.9 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 12.2 8.5 85.7 60.2 46.3 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 14.3 12.8 78.4 55.8 45.6 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.5 11.2 8.5 74.6 58.2 44.7 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.7 10.0 98.5 61.0 47.0 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.8 8.5 83.7 60.9 47.0 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.8 11.6 10.4 79.1 59.2 45.6 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.4 11.8 9.4 79.3 60.7 45.6 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.8 7.3 63.1 57.1 42.7 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.9 8.6 9.2 81.4 61.6 45.0 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.1 5.9 7.3 60.6 55.1 40.6 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.3 20.2 11.7 80.8 56.1 45.2 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.7 8.8 86.7 61.8 47.0 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------