***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 11.0 97.5 63.5 52.7 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 10.7 10.0 90.2 61.2 52.3 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.6 10.4 91.6 62.6 50.8 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.4 16.7 10.0 83.4 62.8 44.1 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.2 18.7 10.0 90.3 64.9 47.8 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.9 8.2 64.5 52.0 39.6 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.6 9.9 87.6 59.2 52.7 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.7 22.3 11.9 105.5 66.0 50.7 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.0 10.0 89.8 64.7 47.4 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.7 19.5 11.5 98.9 65.1 50.1 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.2 18.1 10.6 96.1 63.7 47.8 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 15.6 10.5 103.5 64.4 48.8 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.5 9.4 80.3 59.0 44.9 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 15.4 12.3 89.4 60.0 48.9 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 13.7 8.6 71.7 61.2 40.9 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.8 9.4 85.1 60.5 44.5 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.9 9.3 9.9 87.9 59.1 50.6 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 17.0 11.4 90.6 61.8 48.7 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.5 10.3 90.9 61.6 51.8 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.1 14.2 97.8 63.8 49.1 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.0 15.6 10.0 89.5 63.4 47.6 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.2 9.5 11.0 93.9 60.3 50.9 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.2 10.3 87.9 59.8 50.1 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 10.5 83.8 59.8 47.9 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.9 18.8 11.5 92.3 62.1 49.5 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.1 13.4 8.7 69.5 57.8 39.2 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.3 11.6 96.2 62.9 51.9 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.3 16.1 8.8 77.1 61.7 41.6 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 27.1 12.5 91.3 61.6 48.5 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.6 10.3 90.9 62.1 53.1 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------